Oscar Commentary 2017: Final Predictions

Tomorrow night, the Oscars will be upon us for the 90th time, and the Academy seems to be doing everything in its power to reboot after a year’s worth of mishaps and mistakes on Hollywood’s part. And also of their own doing. While most people ended up throwing away their predictions for last year in a wild dumpster fire, this year seems to be both safer and harder to predict. There are obvious “safe” films that will likely win major awards, but then there seems to be a dark horse in every category (even the tech awards) that actually has a shot at taking home the gold. That’s what this final blog post on the 90th Academy Awards will focus on, predicting who will most likely win, as well as who could win. And just for the fun of it, I’ll throw in my own personal opinions on who should win.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Will win: War for the Planet of the Apes

Could win: Blade Runner 2049

Should win: Blade Runner 2049

After the first two films in the rebooted Planet of the Apes franchise lost this one to Hugo and Interstellar, the third film comes out in a year where all the VFX nominees are blockbusters. The guilds favor the strides this franchise takes in motion capture technology, as do the Critics Choice Awards. But just as favored at the BAFTAs is Blade Runner 2049 and the creation of the dystopian future filled with Replicants and flying cars. Neither film has precedence winning the VFX Oscar (the original Blade Runner lost to E.T. The Extra-Terrestrial), so history will be made for one franchise or the other.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Will win: The Shape of Water

Could win: Blade Runner 2049

Should win: The Shape of Water

A period piece set in the 1950s winning Best Production Design? Big shocker! While this would’ve been a fairly safe bet from the beginning, The Shape of Water has been cleaning up this category on the awards circuit. The guilds love it too, but also worth keeping in mind is that the guilds often have multiple sub-categories in which they can award other films. This year, it was Blade Runner 2049 that took those major subcategories and found its way to the Oscar nominees, though it may be a case where the nomination is its own reward.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Will win: Phantom Thread

Could win: The Shape of Water

Should win: The Shape of Water

Being about fashion as it is, it should be no surprise that Phantom Thread has been cleaning house in this category. Every major voting body is falling head-over-heels in love with this one, with the exception of one major body that could end its big streak: the guild. They instead went over to The Shape of Water, which had better costuming in my opinion anyway in that you could tell in an instant where and when the film was set. One of the biggest issues with Phantom Thread is that you could never tell what location or decade the setting was, and you’d think the costumes would’ve done that. But if Daniel Day-Lewis doesn’t take home his fourth acting trophy, this would be the Academy’s way of honoring his supposed final performance.

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Will win: Darkest Hour

Could win: Victoria & Abdul

Should win: Darkest Hour

Everybody loves Gary Oldman in a fat suit, so I wholly expect Darkest Hour to win in this category. It doesn’t appear to be facing any strong competition, but Suicide Squad won this category last year, so anything is possible. With that being said, the most likely alternative would be Victoria & Abdul, which only has one other nomination. If the Academy wants to reward that film for something, this is a possibility. And while I did pick Darkest Hour as the “rightful” winner, it should be noted that I haven’t seen either of the other nominees, and I will never understand why Best Makeup and Hairstyling only has three nominees as opposed to five.

BEST SOUND EDITING/MIXING

Will win: Dunkirk

Could win: Blade Runner 2049

Should win: Dunkirk

Dunkirk will most likely take home both sound awards, as it is heavily favored by the guilds and other voting groups like the Critics Choice Awards and the BAFTAs. And it should be, as the sound and score are so perfectly integrated into each other that it helps create a unique cinematic experience. But just as we discussed earlier, the guilds have sub-categories, and that’s where Blade Runner 2049 is building a lot of support. The Academy is known for their aversion to blockbusters, but we must remember upsets by Suicide Squad, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, and Mad Max: Fury Road in the technical categories, so there is the off-chance that Blade Runner 2049 could take home quite a few awards this year.

BEST FILM EDITING

Will win: Baby Driver

Could win: Dunkirk

Should win: Dunkirk

Going into the awards season, everyone thought this was Dunkirk‘s to lose, as its non-linear editing structure kept the stories moving along until they intersected at an explosive crescendo. However, we then saw the film tie with Baby Driver at the Critics Choice Awards, and lose completely to that same film at the BAFTAs. The only saving grace for Dunkirk is the guild didn’t go for its strongest competition at all, but will it be enough to push it past the current frontrunner?

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Will win: Blade Runner 2049

Could win: Dunkirk

Should win: Dunkirk

The Academy is notoriously adverse to blockbuster filmmaking, but they also love rewarding an overdue master, and that’s exactly what Roger Deakins is. Fourteen nominations in without a single win, Oscar would love to reward him for his efforts in some of his best work. That being said, the Academy is still adverse to blockbusters, so they could go looking for something else to reward. Dunkirk‘s entrancing experience is largely due to its cinematography, so don’t be too surprised if Roger Deakins loses yet another award. But as of now, this is the one category where Blade Runner 2049 is the undisputed frontrunner.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Will win: Coco

Could win: The Breadwinner

Should win: Coco

Doubt Pixar at your peril. Outside of Monsters, Inc. and Cars, every nominee they’ve offered to Oscar has walked away winning, even the less-than-stellar ones (ahem, Brave). But again, sub-categories, and the Annie Awards do have a few of those, including one for independent animation. The Breadwinner managed to take home that one, but will it hold up against the studio power that keeps the champion’s belt in Pixar’s corner? Well, this is the same studio power that got a nomination for The Boss Baby, so…

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Will win: “Remember Me” (Coco)

Could win: “This Is Me” (The Greatest Showman)

Should win: “Remember Me” (Coco)

This category loves animation. This category also loves Disney, which happens to specialize in animation and own Pixar. This category also loves a song that can have multiple meanings depending on who sings it, which is exactly what “Remember Me” is. But in a way, that’s also what “This Is Me” is, and this category also loves musicals. But The Greatest Showman has an uphill battle due to its mixed critical reception, which is largely in part due to the same meaning being derived from all of its songs that sound the same. Coco took one song and made it sound and feel different every time, and most of the precursor awards seems to agree. The Golden Globes went with “This Is Me”, but I feel like Disney has already acquired this one.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Will win: The Shape of Water

Could win: Dunkirk

Should win: Dunkirk

Yet another instance where The Shape of Water is drowning out the competition, it seems that there’s no stopping Alexandre Desplat from winning his second Oscar, his first being a surprise win for The Grand Budapest Hotel. But his first win was a surprise, so the same thing could happen to him this time around, and Dunkirk is taking home all the sound awards. Since its sound design is blended seamlessly with its score, there is a chance that Hans Zimmer could also take home his second Oscar, his first one being… The Lion King?!

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Will win: Call Me By Your Name

Could win: The Disaster Artist

Should win: The Disaster Artist

For some reason, Call Me By Your Name is winning this category in spades, which means I may be drunk by the time the ceremony is over. But it didn’t start out that way, as the National Board of Review gave this category to The Disaster Artist, which lost out on a highly-anticipated Best Actor nomination for James Franco. Since Call Me By Your Name is present in three other categories, it’s possible that the Academy may go for the film about Hollywood and reward The Disaster Artist in the only category it was nominated for. Or they’ll go for the one starring Armie Hammer as a gay pedophile, I don’t know. We’ll see how drunk I get tomorrow.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Will win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Could win: Get Out

Should win: The Shape of Water

This one has been in a little more turmoil, as what was perceived to be the frontrunner in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri was not nominated at the Writer’s Guild of America. It also lost at the Critics Choice Awards to Get Out, which later took home the top prize at the WGA. Unlike The Shape of Water, Get Out is not the strongest competitor for Best Picture, so this could be where the Academy decides to reward the horror-comedy written by Jordan Peele. But with the backing of the Golden Globes and the BAFTAs, as well as being a top contender for Best Picture, the safe bet would be Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Will win: Allison Janney (I, Tonya)

Could win: Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)

Should win: Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)

Allison Janney has dominated this category just as she dominates I, Tonya. I don’t see that changing come Oscar Sunday, but the National Board of Review can still unveil a dark horse, and this year it was Laurie Metcalf. Janney is a dominating force with little range or development, though her performance is fantastic. Metcalf, on the other hand, is one of the driving forces of Lady Bird, and I would contend that the film wouldn’t be as good as it was without her nuanced performance. So when the competition is between nuance and domination, we’ll have to see which the Academy values more this year.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Will win: Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

Could win: Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)

Should win: Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)

Again, the National Board of Review went with Willem Dafoe. Again, this is the only category that recognized The Florida Project. And again, it may be shut out by a more high-profile film with an overdue actor. Unlike many overdue performers, Sam Rockwell would be winning for his first nomination, and his performance will certainly be one of the highlights of his career regardless. It also doesn’t hurt that he’s playing a racist cop with a three-dimensional arc. But how much of that is the actor versus the screenplay? And that’s why Willem Dafoe should be taken seriously as a dark horse.

BEST ACTRESS

Will win: Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

Could win: Meryl Streep (The Post)

Should win: Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)

The #MeToo movement is one of the driving forces behind this year’s politically-charged Oscars, and that’s why Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri has become a force to be reckoned with. Despite winning an Oscar already for Fargo, Frances McDormand looks to be the frontrunner to take home the trophy this year. But despite comedic winners at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice like Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird) and Margot Robbie (I, Tonya), the real dark horse is NBR’s pick: Meryl Streep. The Post was only recognized in this category and Best Picture, and in this anti-Trump age the Academy could look for a way to get Streep on stage and speak out against both the President and sexual harrassment. But let’s be honest, Sally Hawkins gave us a much more relatable character without ever saying a word.

BEST ACTOR

Will win: Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)

Could win: Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)

Should win: Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)

Everybody loves Gary Oldman in a fat suit. It’s reason for Darkest Hour to win for makeup, and it’s definitely reason for Gary Oldman to win Best Actor. James Franco (The Disaster Artist) would’ve been his only serious competition had he not been snubbed, so finding a dark horse here required me to grasp at straws. There’s honestly not a lot of buzz building around any of these actors, not even Daniel Kaluuya. But there is buzz about Daniel Day-Lewis presumably retiring from acting, so there’s a slim chance he takes this one as a parting gift. But for that performance that anyone could’ve done? As much as I disliked the movie, I think Oldman would be the more deserving of the two.

BEST DIRECTOR

Will win: Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water)

Could win: Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird)

Should win: Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water)

NBR surprised us and went with Greta Gerwig. The Director’s Guild of America rewarded Jordan Peele (Get Out) as a first-time director. Both of their directing feats are nothing to scoff at, but Guillermo del Toro has been sweeping this category just as his film has in every other category it’s been leading in. I highly doubt that’ll change, especially since The Shape of Water is a strong contender for a number of other awards, including…

BEST PICTURE

Will win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Could win: The Shape of Water

Should win: The Shape of Water

This was tough at first, as for awhile there was no clear frontrunner. NBR went with The Post, the Golden Globes went with Lady Bird in comedy, Critics Choice picked Get Out for horror, Call Me By Your Name is dominating screenplay wins, and Phantom Thread surprised everyone just by being nominated. But amidst the ashes of violent competition, two frontrunners kept fighting until the very end. The Shape of Water won Critics Choice and the Producers Guild of America, and it’s the indisputable leader in the Best Director race. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri took the Golden Globes and the BAFTAs, as well as the SAG Ensemble, so it’s currently the safe bet. But it still has to fight to win for its screenplay, and Martin McDonagh missing out on a Best Director nomination is a big deal as very few Best Picture winners have ever not been nominated for Best Director. It’s gonna be a photo finish just like last year, but our only saving grace is that maybe Warren Beatty and Faye Dunaway will be given the correct envelope this time.

And that concludes my pre-Oscars commentary. I may write something on Monday to recap the actual winners, but these are my predictions going in. I’m curious to know what you think. Leave your thoughts in the comments section below, and may the best (or most heavily-marketed) movies win!

Stop, Go, or Slow Down: “Murder on the Orient Express (2017)”

Too many suspects to name or remember in Murder on the Orient Express.

Something you’re going to hear me say a lot (if you can hear my text, that is) is that I hate unnecessary remakes. While there have been some good ones like Ben-Hur (1959) and The Magnificent Seven (1960), the best remakes brought something new to the table that the original didn’t or couldn’t, but still stayed true to the source material. But in recent years, Hollywood has become obsessed with rushing out remakes that not only bring nothing new without destroying the source material, but also just aren’t good movies that can stand on their own, like Ben-Hur (2016) and The Magnificent Seven (2016). Murder on the Orient Express (2017) is one such film, and it may as well have been animated because that at least would’ve brought something new to the story that’s been told seven times so far and hasn’t changed at all.

Michelle Pfeiffer (Dangerous Liaisons, mother!) gives the best performance in the film and still brings nothing new to Murder on the Orient Express.

But since today’s generation probably hasn’t read the book by Agatha Christie or seen the 1974 film or any of the TV adaptations, I’ll write the synopsis anyway. The 2017 film stars director Kenneth Branagh as Hercule Poirot, the world’s greatest detective. Upon being summoned to London to take on another case, he takes the Orient Express to get there from Israel, and it is during this journey that another passenger is murdered and the train stopped by an avalanche, forcing Poirot to solve the murder case before the killer strikes again. If you’re familiar with the source material, you already know how it ends and you don’t need to see this movie unless you’re curious how Branagh keeps such an obscenely large mustache on his face. If you’re not, they assume you are and make it painfully obvious while also rushing through story beats and having characters come to impossible conclusions because that’s how it happened in the book.

Johnny Depp (Edward Scissorhands, Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl) flashes a death threat in Murder on the Orient Express.

I’ll say this in favor of the movie, the actors clearly wanted to play these roles. Granted, there’s not a lot of passion in them, but you can tell they wanted to put on their resumes that they were in Murder on the Orient Express, although a few of them do stand out. Michelle Pfeiffer gets a great scene near the end, and though it’s just like in every other adaptation, it’s still delivered with the power you’d expect from Pfeiffer. Josh Gad (Frozen, The Book of Mormon) feels more at home here than he did in Marshall (2017), but that’s probably because Branagh is directing it slightly more towards a crowd-pleasing action comedy than a tense mystery thriller. Johnny Depp surprisingly gives one of his more subdued performances in recent years, but as the murder victim he doesn’t get a lot of time to show it off. Judi Dench (Shakespeare in Love, Skyfall) even gets a moment of sass while being interrogated by Poirot. But most of them unfortunately do not leave any impression at all because they’re there for the sake of being there, not to actively contribute anything to the film.

Kenneth Branagh (Much Ado About Nothing, Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets) appears angry at his mustache in Murder on the Orient Express.

And then of course there’s director/star Kenneth Branagh. The saying goes, “you win some, you lose some.” Branagh had a win earlier this year with his performance in Dunkirk (2017), and this was his loss. Like the rest of the cast, you could tell he wanted to be there only to say he was there, but also to say he directed Murder on the Orient Express. Everything about this interpretation of Hercule Poirot was a live-action cartoon character, from the way he measured the size of his eggs to the size of his impossible-to-grow mustache to the Frenchest of French accents. He criticized Willem Dafoe’s (Platoon, The Florida Project) German accent, so I have the right to criticize his French accent as being a stereotype of French accents that even the French would laugh at and say is straight from an American cartoon.

An obvious CGI mountain range is obvious in Murder on the Orient Express.

And that’s my main issue with this movie. It’s a live-action cartoon. Everything from the physics of the world to the CGI of the scenery passed by the train (yes, there is CGI in Murder on the Orient Express, this is what we’ve come to) to the over-the-top performances and costumes from the actors to the cinematography by Haris Zambarloukos. We’ll get to the cinematography later, but first I’d like to address this cartoon thing. I assume this was done to get teens to go see it, but it was kept live-action to get the older crowd who know the source material into the theater. The idea to make a cartoon version is unique, but not if the film is still live-action, especially since I’d actually be interested in seeing an anime version of this story. You could take your time with the mystery, explore each character’s backstory, inject lots of comedy while still focusing on the drama, and get breathtaking cinematography that captures the mood of a mystery set on a stranded train. Seriously, get Ryohgo Narita (Baccano!, Durarara!!) on this project and you might have something pretty cool. But when your movie opens with a poop joke, I guess I should’ve known I was going to get a pile of crap.

No CGI required in Haris Zambarloukos’s (Thor, Cinderella) cinematography to create that effect in Murder on the Orient Express.

Right, now about that cinematography. For some reason, Zambarloukos and Kenneth Branagh decided they wanted sweeping shots of CGI mountains and cities early in the movie, and then in the second half they shot literally every character (not literally shot every character) through that ornate-but-colorless glass window you find in the middle of your grandmother’s front door so as to create three faces of the same character. Okay, you can do it, but why? What does it do to signify deeper meaning or bring the audience deeper into the world instead of pulling us out. My best guess is that they’re trying to show that there’s more to everyone’s stories than we’re initially allowed to believe, but when two characters in the beginning have a conversation that’s supposed to be vague that literally gives everything away, all that fancy camerawork feels rather distracting, doesn’t it.

The train, much like the audience, is finally released in Murder on the Orient Express.

In conclusion, remaking a mystery film seems rather pointless, especially one so famous as Murder on the Orient Express. As far as this adaptation goes, the actors are there just to be there and Kenneth Branagh sought out to make a live-action cartoon so he could get as many people to see it based on how it looked rather than how good it actually is or isn’t. It’s derailed and stranded just like the titular train, only this time help is not coming to save it.

Rating: STOP

Stop, Go, or Slow Down: The Florida Project

Valeria Cotto and Brooklynn Kimberly Prince staring at a rainbow above the Magic Castle motel in The Florida Project.

They say patience is a virtue. It took 19 years for me to finally get out of the Central Florida suburbs I grew up in, so I can certainly wait 45 minutes for The Florida Project, a movie about life in a Central Florida motel, to kick into gear and actually tell a story. And one thing both scenarios have in common other than being primarily set in Orlando, FL is that they both paid off very well.

Christopher Rivera, Brooklynn Kimberly Prince, and Valeria Cotto in The Florida Project.

The premise, since it takes awhile for us to get to the story in this movie, is centered around a little girl named Moonee (Brooklynn Kimberly Prince) and the interactions she has with the denizens of the Magic Castle Motel in Kissimmee, FL, among whom include her mother Halley (Bria Vinaite), her friends Jancey (Valeria Cotto) and Scooty (Christopher Rivera), and the motel’s manager Bobby (Willem Dafoe). To say anything more would technically spoil the whole movie since it does take so long for anything resembling a plot to set in. But once the plot does start, it’s engaging and very unsettling, to the point where I question if that was the same road I passed so often on my way to Walt Disney World from my house, despite recognizing most of the buildings shown onscreen.

Willem Dafoe (Platoon) as Bobby Hicks in The Florida Project.

Willem Dafoe plays Willem Da-friend (ha ha, I have no shame), and is easily the best performer in this movie, and that can be attributed to both his decades of experience as an actor and the extra work the script goes through to create a three-dimensional character for him to play. Dafoe adds a rugged demeanor to his character that lets bits of softness seep through, but the way his character was written almost ignores the gruff side of him. He gets most of the standout scenes, such as one where he is forced into helping with a game of hide-and-seek, and then decides to help both sides. He says very little, but lets the few words he has convey compassion for the children, while his facial acting brings his age and world-weariness to the forefront. Because of this, Dafoe has crafted a complex role that sits among his finest works and will surely be honored come Oscar season.

Brooklynn Kimberly Prince and Bria Vinaite in The Florida Project.

But that’s not to say the rest of the cast doesn’t pull their weight either. All of the child actors give authentically annoying performances, which makes sense because they’re all children (it also helps us sympathize with Bobby more). Brooklynn Kimberly Prince especially shows a lot of promise as an actress as the main character in this crowded ensemble. She’s delightfully mischievous in the best ways, but then in accordance with the script is also kinda a brat. But then that’s what you’d expect when Moonee (yes, that is how it’s spelled) is raised by a mom like Bria Vinaite’s irresponsible sailor-swearing white-trash-wannabe party-girl. If you watched the trailers and thought Bobby was gonna be the one you had no sympathy for, then I’ve got news for you: Halley is the one you’ll be rooting against for so many reasons that I won’t bother to list here, but that kind of performance is somewhat of a wonder when you consider Vinaite was discovered by director Sean Baker on Instagram of all places.

The child actors enjoying ice cream before it melts in The Florida Project.

With performances like this, you’d think this would be just as good as slice-of-life films like Boyhood (2014) and Moonlight (2016), but that’s where I would disagree. Boyhood focused entirely on the slice-of-life bits and let is story and character development flow naturally through those intimate moments, while Moonlight had a coherent plot from beginning to end and used those smaller moments to advance said plot. The Florida Project tries to meet somewhere in the middle, spending more than a third of the movie being a slice-of-life film and then starting a story almost an hour in. Ambitious, absolutely. But just because a film is ambitious doesn’t mean that ambition entirely pays off. The result is a film that may not hook casual moviegoers in the way it would hook critics, filmmakers, or pure cinephiles. If you pay attention, you’ll notice a lot of callbacks to the first act throughout the third that tie everything together, but I fear general audiences will be put off by a movie that takes so long as this one to get started.

Veteran actor Willem Dafoe and newcomer Brooklynn Kimberly Prince share a scene in The Florida Project.

So if you are part of that general audience that only sees four or five movies a year, this is not for you. But if you’re like me and see enough movies each year to invest in MoviePass, then check it out. I promise that despite the lengthy start time, you’re not getting ripped off.

Rating: GO