Oscar Commentary 2017: The Results

Jordan Peele became the first African-American to win Best Original Screenplay for his directorial debut, Get Out.

So the Oscars happened. While there were certainly a few pleasant surprises, for the most part they went as expected. If the number one predictions didn’t win, it was always the dark horses. It was easy to narrow it down to two deserving films for each category, but in the spirit of the Academy Awards, there can only be one. A number of films won one Oscar, such as Call Me By Your Name (Best Adapted Screenplay) or Phantom Thread (Best Costume Design), but we’ll mostly focus on those that won multiple awards. So in the spirit of keeping this article shorter than the ceremony, here are the results of the 90th Academy Awards.

“Remember Me” was a little overblown on the Oscars stage.

Unsurprisingly, Coco won the Oscars for Best Animated Feature and Best Original Song for “Remember Me”. It’s a powerful song that, no matter how it’s played, resonates with you in some way. And as the centerpiece of a Pixar movie, it’s pretty easy to see why this movie took home two Academy Awards.

Blade Runner 2049 ended Roger Deakins’ nomination streak with his first win for Best Cinematography.

Also a recipient of two Oscars is Blade Runner 2049, which won Best Cinematography for Roger Deakins and Best Visual Effects. The VFX work in this film was absolutely stunning, staying true to the look of the original while also advancing the world and aesthetic. The cinematography also helped bring that aesthetic to life. The only downside to this win is that War for the Planet of the Apes ended a trilogy of revolutionary motion capture effects without a single Oscar to its name.

Frances McDormand won her second Best Actress Oscar for her performance in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.

But the big surprise is that Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri only won two acting awards: Best Supporting Actor for Sam Rockwell and Best Actress for Frances McDormand, gunning for round two onstage. McDormand’s speech was a riot, mobilizing the masses to stand up for themselves, but it wasn’t enough to keep Get Out (a much more deserving film) from stealing Best Original Screenplay.

Dunkirk not only won three Oscars, but it scored Christopher Nolan his first Best Director nomination.

Dunkirk took home three awards: Best Sound Editing, Best Sound Mixing, and Best Film Editing. The sound work on both fronts, especially when mixed with Hans Zimmer’s Oscar-losing score, transported you to the beaches of Dunkirk, the seas of the English Channel, and the skies above with the RAF airplanes. The editing also kept the pace flowing at a consistent and tension-filled rate through the three different settings. Despite many believing Baby Driver should have won, these awards are very well-deserved for Dunkirk and I can’t wait to see what Christopher Nolan offers the Oscars next time he directs a movie. 

The cast and crew of The Shape of Water, led by Oscar-winning director Guillermo del Toro, accepts the 90th Academy Award for Best Picture.

And finally, the big winner of the night, The Shape of Water deservedly won Best Original Score for Alexandre Desplat, his second after The Grand Budapest Hotel three years ago. Even more so, it rightly won Best Production Design, Best Director for Guillermo del Toro, and the coveted Best Picture Oscar. Though many, myself included, thought Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri would be the big winner, del Toro’s period fantasy proved us naysayers wrong and pleasantly surprised us with four wins (should’ve been at least five for Best Costume Design). This may be a sign of change in the ever-evolving Academy as they recognize horror and fantasy films more as winners instead of just nominees, but we can only wait and see how the Oscars continue to operate in the coming years. Until next year…

Oscar Commentary 2017: Final Predictions

Tomorrow night, the Oscars will be upon us for the 90th time, and the Academy seems to be doing everything in its power to reboot after a year’s worth of mishaps and mistakes on Hollywood’s part. And also of their own doing. While most people ended up throwing away their predictions for last year in a wild dumpster fire, this year seems to be both safer and harder to predict. There are obvious “safe” films that will likely win major awards, but then there seems to be a dark horse in every category (even the tech awards) that actually has a shot at taking home the gold. That’s what this final blog post on the 90th Academy Awards will focus on, predicting who will most likely win, as well as who could win. And just for the fun of it, I’ll throw in my own personal opinions on who should win.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Will win: War for the Planet of the Apes

Could win: Blade Runner 2049

Should win: Blade Runner 2049

After the first two films in the rebooted Planet of the Apes franchise lost this one to Hugo and Interstellar, the third film comes out in a year where all the VFX nominees are blockbusters. The guilds favor the strides this franchise takes in motion capture technology, as do the Critics Choice Awards. But just as favored at the BAFTAs is Blade Runner 2049 and the creation of the dystopian future filled with Replicants and flying cars. Neither film has precedence winning the VFX Oscar (the original Blade Runner lost to E.T. The Extra-Terrestrial), so history will be made for one franchise or the other.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Will win: The Shape of Water

Could win: Blade Runner 2049

Should win: The Shape of Water

A period piece set in the 1950s winning Best Production Design? Big shocker! While this would’ve been a fairly safe bet from the beginning, The Shape of Water has been cleaning up this category on the awards circuit. The guilds love it too, but also worth keeping in mind is that the guilds often have multiple sub-categories in which they can award other films. This year, it was Blade Runner 2049 that took those major subcategories and found its way to the Oscar nominees, though it may be a case where the nomination is its own reward.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Will win: Phantom Thread

Could win: The Shape of Water

Should win: The Shape of Water

Being about fashion as it is, it should be no surprise that Phantom Thread has been cleaning house in this category. Every major voting body is falling head-over-heels in love with this one, with the exception of one major body that could end its big streak: the guild. They instead went over to The Shape of Water, which had better costuming in my opinion anyway in that you could tell in an instant where and when the film was set. One of the biggest issues with Phantom Thread is that you could never tell what location or decade the setting was, and you’d think the costumes would’ve done that. But if Daniel Day-Lewis doesn’t take home his fourth acting trophy, this would be the Academy’s way of honoring his supposed final performance.

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Will win: Darkest Hour

Could win: Victoria & Abdul

Should win: Darkest Hour

Everybody loves Gary Oldman in a fat suit, so I wholly expect Darkest Hour to win in this category. It doesn’t appear to be facing any strong competition, but Suicide Squad won this category last year, so anything is possible. With that being said, the most likely alternative would be Victoria & Abdul, which only has one other nomination. If the Academy wants to reward that film for something, this is a possibility. And while I did pick Darkest Hour as the “rightful” winner, it should be noted that I haven’t seen either of the other nominees, and I will never understand why Best Makeup and Hairstyling only has three nominees as opposed to five.

BEST SOUND EDITING/MIXING

Will win: Dunkirk

Could win: Blade Runner 2049

Should win: Dunkirk

Dunkirk will most likely take home both sound awards, as it is heavily favored by the guilds and other voting groups like the Critics Choice Awards and the BAFTAs. And it should be, as the sound and score are so perfectly integrated into each other that it helps create a unique cinematic experience. But just as we discussed earlier, the guilds have sub-categories, and that’s where Blade Runner 2049 is building a lot of support. The Academy is known for their aversion to blockbusters, but we must remember upsets by Suicide Squad, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, and Mad Max: Fury Road in the technical categories, so there is the off-chance that Blade Runner 2049 could take home quite a few awards this year.

BEST FILM EDITING

Will win: Baby Driver

Could win: Dunkirk

Should win: Dunkirk

Going into the awards season, everyone thought this was Dunkirk‘s to lose, as its non-linear editing structure kept the stories moving along until they intersected at an explosive crescendo. However, we then saw the film tie with Baby Driver at the Critics Choice Awards, and lose completely to that same film at the BAFTAs. The only saving grace for Dunkirk is the guild didn’t go for its strongest competition at all, but will it be enough to push it past the current frontrunner?

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Will win: Blade Runner 2049

Could win: Dunkirk

Should win: Dunkirk

The Academy is notoriously adverse to blockbuster filmmaking, but they also love rewarding an overdue master, and that’s exactly what Roger Deakins is. Fourteen nominations in without a single win, Oscar would love to reward him for his efforts in some of his best work. That being said, the Academy is still adverse to blockbusters, so they could go looking for something else to reward. Dunkirk‘s entrancing experience is largely due to its cinematography, so don’t be too surprised if Roger Deakins loses yet another award. But as of now, this is the one category where Blade Runner 2049 is the undisputed frontrunner.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Will win: Coco

Could win: The Breadwinner

Should win: Coco

Doubt Pixar at your peril. Outside of Monsters, Inc. and Cars, every nominee they’ve offered to Oscar has walked away winning, even the less-than-stellar ones (ahem, Brave). But again, sub-categories, and the Annie Awards do have a few of those, including one for independent animation. The Breadwinner managed to take home that one, but will it hold up against the studio power that keeps the champion’s belt in Pixar’s corner? Well, this is the same studio power that got a nomination for The Boss Baby, so…

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Will win: “Remember Me” (Coco)

Could win: “This Is Me” (The Greatest Showman)

Should win: “Remember Me” (Coco)

This category loves animation. This category also loves Disney, which happens to specialize in animation and own Pixar. This category also loves a song that can have multiple meanings depending on who sings it, which is exactly what “Remember Me” is. But in a way, that’s also what “This Is Me” is, and this category also loves musicals. But The Greatest Showman has an uphill battle due to its mixed critical reception, which is largely in part due to the same meaning being derived from all of its songs that sound the same. Coco took one song and made it sound and feel different every time, and most of the precursor awards seems to agree. The Golden Globes went with “This Is Me”, but I feel like Disney has already acquired this one.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Will win: The Shape of Water

Could win: Dunkirk

Should win: Dunkirk

Yet another instance where The Shape of Water is drowning out the competition, it seems that there’s no stopping Alexandre Desplat from winning his second Oscar, his first being a surprise win for The Grand Budapest Hotel. But his first win was a surprise, so the same thing could happen to him this time around, and Dunkirk is taking home all the sound awards. Since its sound design is blended seamlessly with its score, there is a chance that Hans Zimmer could also take home his second Oscar, his first one being… The Lion King?!

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Will win: Call Me By Your Name

Could win: The Disaster Artist

Should win: The Disaster Artist

For some reason, Call Me By Your Name is winning this category in spades, which means I may be drunk by the time the ceremony is over. But it didn’t start out that way, as the National Board of Review gave this category to The Disaster Artist, which lost out on a highly-anticipated Best Actor nomination for James Franco. Since Call Me By Your Name is present in three other categories, it’s possible that the Academy may go for the film about Hollywood and reward The Disaster Artist in the only category it was nominated for. Or they’ll go for the one starring Armie Hammer as a gay pedophile, I don’t know. We’ll see how drunk I get tomorrow.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Will win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Could win: Get Out

Should win: The Shape of Water

This one has been in a little more turmoil, as what was perceived to be the frontrunner in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri was not nominated at the Writer’s Guild of America. It also lost at the Critics Choice Awards to Get Out, which later took home the top prize at the WGA. Unlike The Shape of Water, Get Out is not the strongest competitor for Best Picture, so this could be where the Academy decides to reward the horror-comedy written by Jordan Peele. But with the backing of the Golden Globes and the BAFTAs, as well as being a top contender for Best Picture, the safe bet would be Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Will win: Allison Janney (I, Tonya)

Could win: Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)

Should win: Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)

Allison Janney has dominated this category just as she dominates I, Tonya. I don’t see that changing come Oscar Sunday, but the National Board of Review can still unveil a dark horse, and this year it was Laurie Metcalf. Janney is a dominating force with little range or development, though her performance is fantastic. Metcalf, on the other hand, is one of the driving forces of Lady Bird, and I would contend that the film wouldn’t be as good as it was without her nuanced performance. So when the competition is between nuance and domination, we’ll have to see which the Academy values more this year.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Will win: Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

Could win: Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)

Should win: Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)

Again, the National Board of Review went with Willem Dafoe. Again, this is the only category that recognized The Florida Project. And again, it may be shut out by a more high-profile film with an overdue actor. Unlike many overdue performers, Sam Rockwell would be winning for his first nomination, and his performance will certainly be one of the highlights of his career regardless. It also doesn’t hurt that he’s playing a racist cop with a three-dimensional arc. But how much of that is the actor versus the screenplay? And that’s why Willem Dafoe should be taken seriously as a dark horse.

BEST ACTRESS

Will win: Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

Could win: Meryl Streep (The Post)

Should win: Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)

The #MeToo movement is one of the driving forces behind this year’s politically-charged Oscars, and that’s why Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri has become a force to be reckoned with. Despite winning an Oscar already for Fargo, Frances McDormand looks to be the frontrunner to take home the trophy this year. But despite comedic winners at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice like Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird) and Margot Robbie (I, Tonya), the real dark horse is NBR’s pick: Meryl Streep. The Post was only recognized in this category and Best Picture, and in this anti-Trump age the Academy could look for a way to get Streep on stage and speak out against both the President and sexual harrassment. But let’s be honest, Sally Hawkins gave us a much more relatable character without ever saying a word.

BEST ACTOR

Will win: Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)

Could win: Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)

Should win: Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)

Everybody loves Gary Oldman in a fat suit. It’s reason for Darkest Hour to win for makeup, and it’s definitely reason for Gary Oldman to win Best Actor. James Franco (The Disaster Artist) would’ve been his only serious competition had he not been snubbed, so finding a dark horse here required me to grasp at straws. There’s honestly not a lot of buzz building around any of these actors, not even Daniel Kaluuya. But there is buzz about Daniel Day-Lewis presumably retiring from acting, so there’s a slim chance he takes this one as a parting gift. But for that performance that anyone could’ve done? As much as I disliked the movie, I think Oldman would be the more deserving of the two.

BEST DIRECTOR

Will win: Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water)

Could win: Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird)

Should win: Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water)

NBR surprised us and went with Greta Gerwig. The Director’s Guild of America rewarded Jordan Peele (Get Out) as a first-time director. Both of their directing feats are nothing to scoff at, but Guillermo del Toro has been sweeping this category just as his film has in every other category it’s been leading in. I highly doubt that’ll change, especially since The Shape of Water is a strong contender for a number of other awards, including…

BEST PICTURE

Will win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Could win: The Shape of Water

Should win: The Shape of Water

This was tough at first, as for awhile there was no clear frontrunner. NBR went with The Post, the Golden Globes went with Lady Bird in comedy, Critics Choice picked Get Out for horror, Call Me By Your Name is dominating screenplay wins, and Phantom Thread surprised everyone just by being nominated. But amidst the ashes of violent competition, two frontrunners kept fighting until the very end. The Shape of Water won Critics Choice and the Producers Guild of America, and it’s the indisputable leader in the Best Director race. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri took the Golden Globes and the BAFTAs, as well as the SAG Ensemble, so it’s currently the safe bet. But it still has to fight to win for its screenplay, and Martin McDonagh missing out on a Best Director nomination is a big deal as very few Best Picture winners have ever not been nominated for Best Director. It’s gonna be a photo finish just like last year, but our only saving grace is that maybe Warren Beatty and Faye Dunaway will be given the correct envelope this time.

And that concludes my pre-Oscars commentary. I may write something on Monday to recap the actual winners, but these are my predictions going in. I’m curious to know what you think. Leave your thoughts in the comments section below, and may the best (or most heavily-marketed) movies win!

Oscar Commentary 2017: Roger Deakins

Roger Deakins prepares yet another iconic shot.

If you’re a film buff like I am, you’ve probably heard the name Roger Deakins before. Even if you haven’t, chances are you’ve seen his cinematography in films like The Shawshank Redemption, Fargo, and Skyfall. As one of the best and most well-known DP’s (director of photography) in the filmmaking business, it’s easy to see why he’s been nominated for fourteen Academy Awards for Best Cinematography. But like many great artists, he has continued contributing to hit after hit after hit without ever winning an Oscar. This is not uncommon in Hollywood. Many great directors like Steven Spielberg and Martin Scorsese went through most of their careers and several nominations without winning anything, and the same can be said for actors like Leonardo DiCaprio. So when the time has come and Deakins finally has a shot at winning an Oscar for his stellar work on Blade Runner 2049, we must ask the same question we think but are too afraid to ask when every great artist gets to this point: does he deserve it?

Marge Gunderson (Frances McDormand) sees the car in front of her, but Roger Deakins sees the whole picture in Fargo.

Now since Roger Deakins has earned fourteen Oscar nominations to date, there have been fourteen chances so far for him to win. I’m going to examine five or six of those examples and figure out if he has deserved to win before, and if he deserves to win now. The most important thing to remember about the Oscars is that whether the politics come into play or not, it’s a competitive race. But it’s unique among competitive races in that you’re not actively playing against anyone. It’s kinda like figure skating in that sense. You can’t really one-up your opponent unless you pull a Tonya Harding, but given the nature of film production that’s almost impossible to do when you get this close to the awards season and the movies have already been released. You can give the performance of your career or craft the most amazing shots you’ve ever composed, but none of that matters if someone else does it even a little better. Voting statistics are never released, so it’s impossible to know for sure how close Deakins or anyone has come to winning in the past. But we can compare his work to the actual winners, and then we’ll see who actually deserved to win that year.

Roger Deakins captures Andy Dufresne’s (Tim Robbins) freedom in The Shawshank Redemption.

For this first example, we’ll go back to the beginning of Deakins’ streak with the Academy: The Shawshank Redemption. This is a movie that was robbed of nearly every Oscar it was nominated for, and even a few where it was left out of the race completely. But one of the things that helped it stand the test of time so well was Deakins’ cinematography. There are so many iconic shots throughout this movie that it’s hard to keep track of them all. But more than that, he understands what the audience would think to look at, and then highlights that while keeping important plot elements visible enough to be seen, but not as the main focus of the shot until they come back later. The winner that year was Legends of the Fall. Be honest, have you even heard of that movie? Has it lasted in the public eye? Has it played on TV for over two decades like The Shawshank Redemption? This is a movie that bombed at the box office and missed out completely in the Oscar race, but somehow managed to find an audience and stake its claim as one of the greatest movies of all time. Roger Deakins played a huge part in that, and absolutely should’ve won an Oscar here.

Through Roger Deakins’ lens, we see a dead body in the opening shot of True Grit.

But while he peaked early, he still kept doing great work. His collaborations with Joel and Ethan Coen have found him a lot of success in the Oscar race, particularly with films like Fargo and True Grit. His wide shots took full advantage of the lighting and atmosphere surrounding the actors, creating grim environments that you want to dive deeper into and explore. Fargo lost to The English Patient, and while we all have many passionate things to say about that movie, it was also beautifully shot. Should it have beat Fargo for cinematography? That’s debatable, but it was clearly a closer race in my mind than his previous loss. True Grit lost to Wally Pfister’s work on Inception. Are we really gonna argue with this one? Pfister made the impossible look possible, even if only in dreams. Despite the extensive visual effects used in that movie, the VFX artists still had wonderfully inventive shots to work with.

Only Roger Deakins knows exactly where Anton Chigurh (Javier Bardem) is in No Country for Old Men.

But the biggest one to many people seems to be No Country for Old Men, which lost to There Will Be Blood. To be honest, I vote for Robert Elswit on this one, especially if you’ve seen the opening scenes of his film. The camerawork has to play a huge part in telling the story since it takes so long for anyone to say a word in this movie, and yet thanks to him and Daniel Day-Lewis, we understand everything that’s going on in Daniel Plainview’s mind. But I don’t think that’s why Deakins lost this one. I think he lost because he had another film in the race that year: The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford. Because he had two films in the race, he likely split votes with himself, and that could’ve put even Atonement ahead of him. Remember, it’s a competition. And while you can’t one-up your opponent, you can very easily sabotage yourself by putting too many credits in the race.

James Bond (Daniel Craig) fights what he could have been and what he is through Roger Deakins’ cinematography in Skyfall.

But one of the things we can infer so far is that after Fargo, other DP’s were showing up more than he was. He had many nominations in between, but they lost to films like Titanic, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring, and Slumdog Millionaire. These are some of the examples where his work was not as memorable compared to the competition. But that all changed when he joined the crew for Skyfall. As an action film, the expectations were for fast-paced editing and camerawork that was hard to make out, but Deakins brought artistry and fluidity to the shots. Yes, some of the edits were quick, but it was always going from one steady shot to another, and Deakins’ mastery of the camera was still present in all of them. At first glance, it seemed like this would finally be his year, and I would’ve loved to see that happen. But then Claudio Miranda took it home for his work on Life of Pi, which is kinda like Inception in terms of being very reliant on visual effects, but at the same time they also had beautiful shots to work with. While I might prefer Skyfall‘s cinematography, it’s understandable to see how Deakins lost this one.

Joi (Ana de Armas) bestows love on K (Ryan Gosling) just as the Academy may bestow love upon Roger Deakins for Blade Runner 2049.

So now we come to the present. After losing the Oscar to Emmanuel Lubezki three times in a row (Gravity, Birdman, The Revenant), Roger Deakins is now the frontrunner to win Best Cinematography for Blade Runner 2049. For the most part, his competition isn’t that noteworthy, but he is once again up against a Christopher Nolan film: Dunkirk. There are many technical aspects to this film that, if even a hair off, would’ve brought the overall product down immensely. But they all work together in a truly experiential harmony, starting with Hoyte van Hoytema’s cinematography. Whether you feel like you’re trapped on the beach or inside a Navy ship, the camerawork builds constant suspense throughout the entire runtime and never lets up. Roger Deakins brought us back to the world of Blade Runner, and even expanding on the world thanks to modern camera technology. But unlike Skyfall where he brought something new to the franchise, all he did was expand on the work of Jordan Cronenweth, the DP for the original Blade Runner. So while Deakins probably will take home an Oscar next month after fourteen nominations, but does he deserve it over Dunkirk?

The Dude (Jeff Bridges) does not abide The Big Lebowski missing out on a Best Cinematography nomination for Roger Deakins.

If Roger Deakins did win the Oscar, would it be his win? Or would it be more akin to an Honorary Academy Award celebrating his entire body of work? Whatever the case may be, this is a guy who genuinely deserves an Oscar for something. And while I don’t think this should be his year, he will definitely have at least one on his shelf before he’s done.

Oscar Commentary 2017: LGBTQ Cinema

Timotheé Chalamet and Armie Hammer star in Call Me By Your Name, nominated for four Oscars: Best Picture, Best Actor (Chalamet), Best Adapted Screenplay, and Best Original Song (“Mystery of Love”).

We see it pretty much every year. A movie about a gay or lesbian couple gets nominated for a bunch of Oscars. Some say it’s a touching portrait of romance that hasn’t been explored yet, but is that true anymore if we see these films at the Oscars every single year? Some say they keep getting nominated because it’s the politically-correct thing to do, but should the artistry behind many of these films be denied? Some say they’re just good movies, but are they all really? And do all of them actually get major nominations?

Rooney Mara and Cate Blanchett were nominated for Oscars for their work in Carol, which was also nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Original Score, Best Cinematography, and Best Costume Design.

And this brings me to my first argument about the subject matter: Carol (2015). If you saw this movie, you know this much to be certain: Cate Blanchett commands every scene with confidence and grace and makes everyone of either sex fall in love with her, Rooney Mara perfectly captures the innocence of a young woman discovering her sexuality, and everything about the production from the cinematography to the set and costume design creates a bleak but colorful world that encapsulates 1950s America. In short, this is a great movie that deserves more praise than it got. So, why was it snubbed of a Best Picture nomination over lesser films like Mad Max: Fury Road (2015) (more on that piece of trash another time. I said another time!)? If politics had anything to do with it, it would’ve gotten the nomination for sure. But I have a different theory that might also explain why so many LGBTQ films have been getting nominations in the last decade: the sliding scale system.

Annette Bening and Julianne Moore star in The Kids Are Alright, nominated for four Oscars: Best Picture, Best Actress (Bening), Best Supporting Actor (Mark Ruffalo), and Best Original Screenplay.

I’ll try to make this short, mostly because even the best accountants I know could never explain this no matter how hard they tried, but there’s a lot of math that comes from the Best Picture ballots of each Academy voter that determines the number of Best Picture nominees between five and ten. It usually changes every year. My point is, instead of allowing more blockbuster films like The Dark Knight (2008) to make the cut, it has incentivized studios to launch even more rigorous Oscar campaigns for smaller movies that might otherwise not make any money at the box office. And while I don’t have access to the exact numbers for Oscar voting, I can offer analysis based on what other nominations many of these movies are getting.

Alicia Vikander and Eddie Redmayne were nominated for Oscars for their work in The Danish Girl, with the former winning Best Supporting Actress.

For example, while Carol was not nominated for Best Picture, it was recognized for Cate Blanchett and Rooney Mara in Best Actress and Supporting Actress respectively, the latter being a bull$#!% move if you ask me (more on that when it’s relevant). That same year, we also saw The Danish Girl (2015) nominated for Best Actor for Eddie Redmayne, and winning Best Supporting Actress for Alicia Vikander (more bull$#!%). Also a LGBTQ film, also not nominated for Best Picture. And both films fought hard with their campaigns on the precursor awards, with Carol especially dominating many nomination counts. What ultimately happened was the sliding scale set the Best Picture count to eight, shutting both films out.

Jared Leto won Best Supporting Actor for Dallas Buyers Club, which also won Best Actor (Matthew McConaughey) and Best Makeup and Hairstyling.

So that’s what happens when the sliding scale shuts out LGBTQ films entirely. What about when they do get nominated for Best Picture? Films like Dallas Buyers Club (2013) and Call Me By Your Name (2017) cover similar subject matter and made the Best Picture cut, both in years where there were nine nominees. What does this have to do with anything? A lot, actually. Best Picture is the only category that is able to have more than five nominees, and the one category that almost always ties itself to Best Picture is Best Director. Especially in the age of the sliding scale, if your film is nominated for Best Director, it’s most likely nominated for Best Picture as well. What’s interesting to note is that while the aforementioned films, along with The Kids Are Alright (2010), were nominated for Best Picture in their respective years, they all missed out on Best Director. Which means the sliding scale was probably the only reason these films got in. So, does it ever actually happen for LGBTQ films to make it big at the Oscars? Well, yes.

Moonlight won Oscars for Best Picture, Best Supporting Actor (Mahershala Ali), and Best Adapted Screenplay.

Once-in-awhile you’ll see this kind of movie get nominated for most of the major awards, and maybe even win Best Picture like Moonlight (2016). But it should also be noted that not only did Barry Jenkins lose Best Director to Damien Chazelle for La La Land (2016), the film arguably also capitalized on the #OscarsSoWhite hashtag that had been going around for a couple years prior, and here comes a film about a poor gay black kid from Miami that takes all the gold. If there’s one thing the Academy loves more than a socially-relevant topic, it’s multiple socially-relevant topics. There’s also The Imitation Game (2014), securing nominations for Best Picture and Best Director, and just like the aforementioned Moonlight, winning Best Adapted Screenplay. But that was also a WWII movie which, again, Oscar campaigns can’t get enough of. Seriously, Dunkirk (2017) AND Darkest Hour (2017)? Do we really need both in the same year?

Keira Knightley and Benedict Cumberbatch were nominated for Oscars for The Imitation Game, which won the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay.

But one other thing that those two films have in common is they take more advantage of the art and science of filmmaking than, say, Call Me By Your Name. The Imitation Game is edited together like a puzzle that you have to solve, the order of each flashback or flashforward planned very carefully so the story still flows organically and reveals come naturally to both the audience and the other characters. Moonlight took risks in its cinematography and music, using a cerebral tone to get its audience into Chiron’s mindset. While I don’t think all of its risks paid off (ex. slo-mo reverse shot), it still went above and beyond the generic shot composition most films of its type would’ve attempted.

Jake Gyllenhaal and Heath Ledger were nominated for Oscars for Brokeback Mountain, which won Best Original Score, Best Adapted Screenplay, and Best Director (Ang Lee).

And going back years further before the sliding scale, you see these films less and less, with the occasional nominations and wins for films like Brokeback Mountain (2005), Milk (2008), and Philadelphia (1993). But that was back when we still only had five nominees for Best Picture, and also when the subject was far more controversial than it is today. So, what can we gather from all this? That politics has everything to do with these films getting nominations, but also nothing at all. Campaigns are everything, but the current system is so screwed up that the politics are either completely obvious and/or don’t matter. The LGBTQ community can say they have victory by getting Best Picture nominated films, but they really don’t mean much when they’re obviously included just to fill a quota. Seriously though, what was up with snubbing Carol?