Tomorrow night, the Oscars will be upon us for the 90th time, and the Academy seems to be doing everything in its power to reboot after a year’s worth of mishaps and mistakes on Hollywood’s part. And also of their own doing. While most people ended up throwing away their predictions for last year in a wild dumpster fire, this year seems to be both safer and harder to predict. There are obvious “safe” films that will likely win major awards, but then there seems to be a dark horse in every category (even the tech awards) that actually has a shot at taking home the gold. That’s what this final blog post on the 90th Academy Awards will focus on, predicting who will most likely win, as well as who could win. And just for the fun of it, I’ll throw in my own personal opinions on who should win.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Will win: War for the Planet of the Apes
Could win: Blade Runner 2049
Should win: Blade Runner 2049
After the first two films in the rebooted Planet of the Apes franchise lost this one to Hugo and Interstellar, the third film comes out in a year where all the VFX nominees are blockbusters. The guilds favor the strides this franchise takes in motion capture technology, as do the Critics Choice Awards. But just as favored at the BAFTAs is Blade Runner 2049 and the creation of the dystopian future filled with Replicants and flying cars. Neither film has precedence winning the VFX Oscar (the original Blade Runner lost to E.T. The Extra-Terrestrial), so history will be made for one franchise or the other.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Will win: The Shape of Water
Could win: Blade Runner 2049
Should win: The Shape of Water
A period piece set in the 1950s winning Best Production Design? Big shocker! While this would’ve been a fairly safe bet from the beginning, The Shape of Water has been cleaning up this category on the awards circuit. The guilds love it too, but also worth keeping in mind is that the guilds often have multiple sub-categories in which they can award other films. This year, it was Blade Runner 2049 that took those major subcategories and found its way to the Oscar nominees, though it may be a case where the nomination is its own reward.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Will win: Phantom Thread
Could win: The Shape of Water
Should win: The Shape of Water
Being about fashion as it is, it should be no surprise that Phantom Thread has been cleaning house in this category. Every major voting body is falling head-over-heels in love with this one, with the exception of one major body that could end its big streak: the guild. They instead went over to The Shape of Water, which had better costuming in my opinion anyway in that you could tell in an instant where and when the film was set. One of the biggest issues with Phantom Thread is that you could never tell what location or decade the setting was, and you’d think the costumes would’ve done that. But if Daniel Day-Lewis doesn’t take home his fourth acting trophy, this would be the Academy’s way of honoring his supposed final performance.
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Will win: Darkest Hour
Could win: Victoria & Abdul
Should win: Darkest Hour
Everybody loves Gary Oldman in a fat suit, so I wholly expect Darkest Hour to win in this category. It doesn’t appear to be facing any strong competition, but Suicide Squad won this category last year, so anything is possible. With that being said, the most likely alternative would be Victoria & Abdul, which only has one other nomination. If the Academy wants to reward that film for something, this is a possibility. And while I did pick Darkest Hour as the “rightful” winner, it should be noted that I haven’t seen either of the other nominees, and I will never understand why Best Makeup and Hairstyling only has three nominees as opposed to five.
BEST SOUND EDITING/MIXING
Will win: Dunkirk
Could win: Blade Runner 2049
Should win: Dunkirk
Dunkirk will most likely take home both sound awards, as it is heavily favored by the guilds and other voting groups like the Critics Choice Awards and the BAFTAs. And it should be, as the sound and score are so perfectly integrated into each other that it helps create a unique cinematic experience. But just as we discussed earlier, the guilds have sub-categories, and that’s where Blade Runner 2049 is building a lot of support. The Academy is known for their aversion to blockbusters, but we must remember upsets by Suicide Squad, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, and Mad Max: Fury Road in the technical categories, so there is the off-chance that Blade Runner 2049 could take home quite a few awards this year.
BEST FILM EDITING
Will win: Baby Driver
Could win: Dunkirk
Should win: Dunkirk
Going into the awards season, everyone thought this was Dunkirk‘s to lose, as its non-linear editing structure kept the stories moving along until they intersected at an explosive crescendo. However, we then saw the film tie with Baby Driver at the Critics Choice Awards, and lose completely to that same film at the BAFTAs. The only saving grace for Dunkirk is the guild didn’t go for its strongest competition at all, but will it be enough to push it past the current frontrunner?
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will win: Blade Runner 2049
Could win: Dunkirk
Should win: Dunkirk
The Academy is notoriously adverse to blockbuster filmmaking, but they also love rewarding an overdue master, and that’s exactly what Roger Deakins is. Fourteen nominations in without a single win, Oscar would love to reward him for his efforts in some of his best work. That being said, the Academy is still adverse to blockbusters, so they could go looking for something else to reward. Dunkirk‘s entrancing experience is largely due to its cinematography, so don’t be too surprised if Roger Deakins loses yet another award. But as of now, this is the one category where Blade Runner 2049 is the undisputed frontrunner.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Will win: Coco
Could win: The Breadwinner
Should win: Coco
Doubt Pixar at your peril. Outside of Monsters, Inc. and Cars, every nominee they’ve offered to Oscar has walked away winning, even the less-than-stellar ones (ahem, Brave). But again, sub-categories, and the Annie Awards do have a few of those, including one for independent animation. The Breadwinner managed to take home that one, but will it hold up against the studio power that keeps the champion’s belt in Pixar’s corner? Well, this is the same studio power that got a nomination for The Boss Baby, so…
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Will win: “Remember Me” (Coco)
Could win: “This Is Me” (The Greatest Showman)
Should win: “Remember Me” (Coco)
This category loves animation. This category also loves Disney, which happens to specialize in animation and own Pixar. This category also loves a song that can have multiple meanings depending on who sings it, which is exactly what “Remember Me” is. But in a way, that’s also what “This Is Me” is, and this category also loves musicals. But The Greatest Showman has an uphill battle due to its mixed critical reception, which is largely in part due to the same meaning being derived from all of its songs that sound the same. Coco took one song and made it sound and feel different every time, and most of the precursor awards seems to agree. The Golden Globes went with “This Is Me”, but I feel like Disney has already acquired this one.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Will win: The Shape of Water
Could win: Dunkirk
Should win: Dunkirk
Yet another instance where The Shape of Water is drowning out the competition, it seems that there’s no stopping Alexandre Desplat from winning his second Oscar, his first being a surprise win for The Grand Budapest Hotel. But his first win was a surprise, so the same thing could happen to him this time around, and Dunkirk is taking home all the sound awards. Since its sound design is blended seamlessly with its score, there is a chance that Hans Zimmer could also take home his second Oscar, his first one being… The Lion King?!
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will win: Call Me By Your Name
Could win: The Disaster Artist
Should win: The Disaster Artist
For some reason, Call Me By Your Name is winning this category in spades, which means I may be drunk by the time the ceremony is over. But it didn’t start out that way, as the National Board of Review gave this category to The Disaster Artist, which lost out on a highly-anticipated Best Actor nomination for James Franco. Since Call Me By Your Name is present in three other categories, it’s possible that the Academy may go for the film about Hollywood and reward The Disaster Artist in the only category it was nominated for. Or they’ll go for the one starring Armie Hammer as a gay pedophile, I don’t know. We’ll see how drunk I get tomorrow.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Could win: Get Out
Should win: The Shape of Water
This one has been in a little more turmoil, as what was perceived to be the frontrunner in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri was not nominated at the Writer’s Guild of America. It also lost at the Critics Choice Awards to Get Out, which later took home the top prize at the WGA. Unlike The Shape of Water, Get Out is not the strongest competitor for Best Picture, so this could be where the Academy decides to reward the horror-comedy written by Jordan Peele. But with the backing of the Golden Globes and the BAFTAs, as well as being a top contender for Best Picture, the safe bet would be Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will win: Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
Could win: Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
Should win: Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
Allison Janney has dominated this category just as she dominates I, Tonya. I don’t see that changing come Oscar Sunday, but the National Board of Review can still unveil a dark horse, and this year it was Laurie Metcalf. Janney is a dominating force with little range or development, though her performance is fantastic. Metcalf, on the other hand, is one of the driving forces of Lady Bird, and I would contend that the film wouldn’t be as good as it was without her nuanced performance. So when the competition is between nuance and domination, we’ll have to see which the Academy values more this year.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Will win: Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Could win: Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
Should win: Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
Again, the National Board of Review went with Willem Dafoe. Again, this is the only category that recognized The Florida Project. And again, it may be shut out by a more high-profile film with an overdue actor. Unlike many overdue performers, Sam Rockwell would be winning for his first nomination, and his performance will certainly be one of the highlights of his career regardless. It also doesn’t hurt that he’s playing a racist cop with a three-dimensional arc. But how much of that is the actor versus the screenplay? And that’s why Willem Dafoe should be taken seriously as a dark horse.
BEST ACTRESS
Will win: Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Could win: Meryl Streep (The Post)
Should win: Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)
The #MeToo movement is one of the driving forces behind this year’s politically-charged Oscars, and that’s why Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri has become a force to be reckoned with. Despite winning an Oscar already for Fargo, Frances McDormand looks to be the frontrunner to take home the trophy this year. But despite comedic winners at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice like Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird) and Margot Robbie (I, Tonya), the real dark horse is NBR’s pick: Meryl Streep. The Post was only recognized in this category and Best Picture, and in this anti-Trump age the Academy could look for a way to get Streep on stage and speak out against both the President and sexual harrassment. But let’s be honest, Sally Hawkins gave us a much more relatable character without ever saying a word.
BEST ACTOR
Will win: Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
Could win: Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)
Should win: Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)
Everybody loves Gary Oldman in a fat suit. It’s reason for Darkest Hour to win for makeup, and it’s definitely reason for Gary Oldman to win Best Actor. James Franco (The Disaster Artist) would’ve been his only serious competition had he not been snubbed, so finding a dark horse here required me to grasp at straws. There’s honestly not a lot of buzz building around any of these actors, not even Daniel Kaluuya. But there is buzz about Daniel Day-Lewis presumably retiring from acting, so there’s a slim chance he takes this one as a parting gift. But for that performance that anyone could’ve done? As much as I disliked the movie, I think Oldman would be the more deserving of the two.
BEST DIRECTOR
Will win: Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water)
Could win: Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird)
Should win: Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water)
NBR surprised us and went with Greta Gerwig. The Director’s Guild of America rewarded Jordan Peele (Get Out) as a first-time director. Both of their directing feats are nothing to scoff at, but Guillermo del Toro has been sweeping this category just as his film has in every other category it’s been leading in. I highly doubt that’ll change, especially since The Shape of Water is a strong contender for a number of other awards, including…
BEST PICTURE
Will win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Could win: The Shape of Water
Should win: The Shape of Water
This was tough at first, as for awhile there was no clear frontrunner. NBR went with The Post, the Golden Globes went with Lady Bird in comedy, Critics Choice picked Get Out for horror, Call Me By Your Name is dominating screenplay wins, and Phantom Thread surprised everyone just by being nominated. But amidst the ashes of violent competition, two frontrunners kept fighting until the very end. The Shape of Water won Critics Choice and the Producers Guild of America, and it’s the indisputable leader in the Best Director race. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri took the Golden Globes and the BAFTAs, as well as the SAG Ensemble, so it’s currently the safe bet. But it still has to fight to win for its screenplay, and Martin McDonagh missing out on a Best Director nomination is a big deal as very few Best Picture winners have ever not been nominated for Best Director. It’s gonna be a photo finish just like last year, but our only saving grace is that maybe Warren Beatty and Faye Dunaway will be given the correct envelope this time.
And that concludes my pre-Oscars commentary. I may write something on Monday to recap the actual winners, but these are my predictions going in. I’m curious to know what you think. Leave your thoughts in the comments section below, and may the best (or most heavily-marketed) movies win!
10. Blade Runner 2049 (dir. Denis Villeneuve) – Making a sequel to one of the greatest sci-fi films of all time was never going to be an easy task, but Dis- I mean, Fox saw something golden when they hired Denis Villeneuve to revisit Replicants and their struggle for life and agency. The cinematography by Roger Deakins is the perfect lens to reintroduce audiences to Los Angeles of the distant future, and the objects of his shots remind us that this is the same world featured in the original Blade Runner (1982), but evolved 30 years into its future and now more noticeably split from our own timeline. The cast, led by Ryan Gosling and Harrison Ford, further sells the idea that artificial intelligence populates this universe just as much as organic life, and the overall product gives us an evolution to look forward to in a potential third installment. Whether we get that third film or not, Blade Runner 2049 is a must-see for sci-fi fans of any era.
9. Coco (dir. Lee Unkrich)/Your Name (dir. Makoto Shinkai) – In a year where most animation was utter garbage, it was nice to know that audiences could still count on the industry’s biggest powerhouses to deliver quality entertainment: Pixar and anime. And both of their offerings this year are real tear-jerkers. In Coco, the emotional weight comes from a small family story made grand by setting it in the Land of the Dead, but it never loses sight of its cultural roots. The song “Remember Me” is used to great effect here, sung with the same lyrics but different meaning each time it’s played, creating a memorable musical experience that will be reinterpreted again and again for years to come.
But this wasn’t the only wonderful animated offering we got, for in Your Name we were given a grand epic made small and intimate thanks to its use of animation. Gorgeous shots never let us forget the size of the story, but the focus is more on the characters of Taki and Mitsuha. The science or magic or whatever is not the main draw of the plot, but rather a plot device to enable these characters to go on this journey of self-discovery that ultimately impacts the lives of everyone around them. It’s a truly timeless story that could never be recaptured in any remake, but many will find their own interpretation of this magical experience.
8. mother! (dir. Darren Aronofsky) – It’s safe to say we all knew we were gonna get something disturbing and controversial when we walked into a Darren Aronofsky film. What we didn’t know was just how surreal this film would be. Everyone has a different outlook on it, but the most common seems to be that it’s an allegory to major events in the Bible (the Fall of Man, the Great Flood, etc.) from the perspective of the earth as if it was a living thing. That living thing in this instance is played by Jennifer Lawrence, who the cinematography proves you can never get enough of. Aronofsky’s humanization of God, played by Javier Bardem, is both relatable and antagonistic, and while that would seem like an obvious turn-off to many Christian viewers, I actually think it’s one of the film’s greatest strengths. Aronofsky is no stranger to challenging our views on everything from drugs to sports, and while this one certainly won’t convert everyone to whatever his viewpoint is, the fact that people are still talking about what it means proves that while we may not completely understand mother!, it did something right.
7. The Disaster Artist (dir. James Franco) – Very rarely will you see a biopic told as a straight-up comedy. But when the subject is Tommy Wiseau, the mastermind behind The Room (2003), you don’t really have a choice. The star of this film is James Franco in both the director’s chair and the lead role, and he understands Wiseau about as well as anyone is capable of understanding him. He nails the weird eccentricities that Tommy is known for, but he also keeps him grounded in some level of humanity that reminds us that, despite many of our suspicions, he is not an alien from a spoon-obsessed planet. Whether you’ve seen the best worst movie ever made or not, The Disaster Artist is the funniest movie of the year, and well worth a double feature.
6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (dir. Martin McDonagh) – Probably the most timely film of the year, this tale of sexual assault being forced in the forefront of the establishment’s agenda is carried entirely by its performances. Frances McDormand leads the film as a deceased rape victim’s mother who sets up three billboards to draw attention to her case and force the local police department to do something about a rapist still out there. While it does serve as a story about going after sexual assault, it’s also a story about anger begetting anger and how that unhealthy cycle needs to end in order to move forward. Because of this, the timeliness of the film rings even more because its focus was on its own story and themes rather than grabbing an Oscar. It most certainly will be going for Oscars, but in this case that’s icing on the cake that is Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.
5. Baby Driver (dir. Edgar Wright) – Fresh off of not making Ant-Man (2015), Edgar Wright brings us his own American heist film with a killer soundtrack and phenomenal car chases. He absolutely deserves an Oscar nomination for pairing every action beat with a musical beat and still making it stand on its own. All the work that went into the cinematography, editing, and sound design paid off in even slower date scenes between Baby and Debora. Speaking of, the romance is believable enough to get us invested in the long-term personal stakes for Baby as well as the immediate stakes of each action scene. The thrills never stop, but there’s still time for the audience to breathe in between chases and gunfights, ultimately leading to a symphonic creation of sight and sound. If you’re looking for the most vibrant experience of sight and sound, then hop in and take a ride with Baby Driver.
4. Dunkirk (dir. Christopher Nolan) – If there’s one director whose body of work continuously takes high-concept stories and tells them in artistically unique ways, it’s Christopher Nolan, and his latest film is more proof that he can still reach new audiences. The film tells its story from three perspectives (land, sea, air) over three different time periods (week, day, hour), and somehow weaves them together in a heart-pounding tension-filled epic. Though the characterization may be thin in some areas, it gives us everything we need to know about the characters and their struggle to survive the onslaught from Nazi Germany. Watching this movie, you will feel like you’re on the beach with the soldiers, or in the air with the Spitfire planes. When everything collides together in the finale, you will leave the theater (because this movie deserves to be seen on the big screen) truly exhilarated and breathless. Dunkirk may not be rooted in anyone’s personal story, but its truth comes from the experience.
3. Lady Bird (dir. Greta Gerwig) – A coming-of-age drama written and directed by an actress who has never quite caught on with anyone? Who’d have guessed this would be as big a hit as it is? Whereas most actors who try their hand at directing are already super famous, Greta Gerwig was kinda just there, popping up on screen but never standing out enough to attract attention. But behind the camera, she has heads turning because she understands pacing and character development, and uses her storytelling gifts to move so much along at such a fast rate while still keeping it natural. Though her script is strong, she has enough faith in her actors (particularly Saoirse Ronan and Laurie Metcalf) to let them carry certain scenes with little-to-no dialogue. And this is the first movie she’s directed on her own, so it’ll be interesting to see what Gerwig does with her career following Lady Bird.
2. Get Out (dir. Jordan Peele) – A horror-comedy directed by half of Key and Peele? Get out! All jokes aside, this is a truly horrifying experience in the most unexpected ways. Without giving too much away, it would’ve beeen so easy to make the villains pure racists who just want to systemically kill non-whites, but the conspiracy lies so much deeper than that and makes us feel truly sick thinking about them. Part of that actually comes from the comedy, and this is where Jordan Peele’s background kicks in. Instead of going for a completely serious horror tone, Peele infuses the right jokes in all the right places, and not all of them are laugh-out-loud jokes that you would expect from sketch and stand-up comedy. The truth behind it is some people think their jokes are genuinely funny when they’re really offensive, and that’s what makes the scares work here. Everyone’s in on the joke, except you and Chris Washington. So if you’re looking for laughs and scares, Get Out is a movie that you definitely should’ve seen by now.
1. The Shape of Water (dir. Guillermo del Toro) – For the final entry on this list, we take a look at something that is both risky and conventional. I say conventional because it’s a standard “Beauty and the Beast” love story set in a different setting, and we’ve seen it done before in many different settings. But Guillermo del Toro knows exactly what changes to make in addition and where to go even further. Despite possessing a familiar humanoid build, the beastly aspects of the fish man are straight-up beastly, and anything that eats a cat can’t be human. And instead of the beast who is “cursed”, it’s the beauty. How? Why? We don’t really know, but there are hints dropped that I can’t write about here without spoiling too much. But those theories paired with the ultimate resolution sink it deeper into that “Beauty and the Beast” model, and that makes it an interesting role reversal. Of course the setting is utilized very well in 1950s suburban America, paying homage to traditional societal models of the era as well as creature features and Biblical epics of the time. And all of it is acted out by the year’s best cast, led by Sally Hawkins’ mesmerizing wordless performance. Honestly, there’s almost too much to be said about The Shape of Water, but I encourage you all to see it for yourselves and see what’s so beautiful about it.
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